Housing's Supply Problem Exposed

You may already know that the current residential real estate market is suffering from a lack of supply. But just how serious is this issue, and what's causing it?

According to a recent CNBC article, The National Association of Realtors reported that the housing market was still underperforming in February. There are currently just less than 1.9 million homes for sale, which is less than last year and "well below current demand." Whereas the number of listings typically increases by 6 percent from January to February, the number of listings this year increased by less than 2 percent. Even foreclosures are down, reaching their lowest level last month in 8.5 years. Lack of supply results in increased prices: prices have risen 7.5 percent year over year, as the median home sale price as of Feburary was $202,600. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the Realtors, considers these price gains "unhealthy." So, what's behind this persistently low supply?

• Larger builders are gaining share over smaller builders, who don't have access to credit. Larger builders tend to cater more to higher-end buyers, not first-time homeowners, pricing this key demographic out of the market.
• Relatedly, many people are choosing to rent instead of buy. For this reason, rental prices have increased sustainability and show no signs of stopping. In turn, renters are struggling to save enough money for a down payment.
• Buyers are low on cash and are highly concerned with value following the recession. They want to feel as if they are getting a good deal, which is hard to do in light of increasing prices and fewer housing options. 

Peter Boockvar, managing director and Chief Market Analysis of The Lindsey Group, states that household growth and even higher rental rates will cause a nice rebound in the housing market, reaffirming that a slowdown in the pace of home price gains is much needed.

Now is a good time to sell, as sellers can take advantage of the recent price increases caused by the limited supply of listings. Visit my website and contact me to see how I can help. I am a full time Realtor with a lifetime of experience serving sellers (and buyers!) in Ohio.

Investors Withdraw From Housing Market

In August, many investors withdrew from the housing market, possibly resulting from the Federal Reserve's signal that interest rates will be rising. It is no surprise then, that the portion of all cash buyers has dropped. At only 23%, cash transactions represent the lowest share since December 2009.

 First-time home buyers, who account for 30% of transactions and often rely on mortgage financing, will benefit from reduced competition with all-cash offers, fewer bidding wars, and increased inventory.  Another side effect of investor withdraw is the 1.8% decline in existing home sales from a seasonally adjusted 5.14 million in July to 5.05 million in August. This marks the first dip following four months of consecutive gains.

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The Best Time to Buy a Home

The real estate market is cyclical, moving up and down. Still, seasonal variations affect buyers and sellers alike.

The spring is the most common time to buy a home, as most home sales occur between April and July. Buyers like buying at this time because they have more vacation time, better weather, and don't have to take their kids out of school should they change school districts. This is good news from an inventory standpoint, but bad from a price perspective. Sellers who have just listed their homes in the spring will be less willing to negotiate the price than sellers who have withstood less favorable conditions. Increased competition means buyers risk losing a home if they do not act quickly.

Contrarily, buyers can generally expect to find less inventory but better prices in the fall, winter, and summer (the "off" season), when competition is reduced. Realtor.com suggests buying a home between Thanksgiving and New Years, as home prices are typically at a 12-month low in December. Also during the colder months, some mortgage lenders forgo some of their fees in order to attract customers, who in turn get good mortgage deals. Realtor.com also lists early spring as a good time to buy, just as sellers are listing their properties and determining an asking price.

Interest rates and related economic factors are also important to consider when starting your home search. Ultimately, though, the best time to buy varies from person to person, based on personal factors. Beware: waiting for the "perfect" time to buy a home may result in a lost opportunity, given the unpredictable timing of the real estate market.

Ready to start your home search? Contact me!

The Average American Home: Bigger than Ever

In America, you've probably heard the phase, "bigger is better." This philosophy is manifested in U.S. home sizes, which have steadily increased over time. According to the Census Bureau, the average home size grew from 1,725 square feet in 1983 to 2,598 square feet in 2013--an increase of 50%!

Many trends explain this phenomenon. First, the wealthily have gotten wealthier, and are buying bigger homes to show for it. The market for homes 4,000 square feet or more has increased from 6.6% in 2005 to 9% in 2013. Homes between 3,000 and 4,000 square feet have increased even more--from 15.6 % to 21.7% over the same time period. Director of Economic Services for the National Association of Home Builders Stephan Melman states that people who have invested in the stock market have seen their money double since 2009. 

On another note, first-time homebuyers are finding it more difficult to buy homes, thanks to student debt and trouble getting mortgages. Because first-time homebuyers make up the majority of the market for small homes, the market for such homes (1400 square feet and less) has decreased from 9% in 2005 to only 4% in 2013. The average first-time homebuyer in 2013 was 31 years old according the National Association of Realtors. 

Third, people are demanding more from their homes. Buyers want home offices, play rooms, walk-in closets and oversized bathrooms. Parents want their children to each have their own room. For many, a one car garage will no longer suffice. Therefore, alongside the increase in home size, the number of rooms in the average home is increasing as well.

Another trend that helps explain the increase in home size involves the current rental market. Rental rates have increased since 2006 by roughly 20%---turning many homeowners into landlords to order to help pay off home mortgages. People who move into a larger home are more inclined to hang on to their previous home as a rental given their low mortgage rates. Glenn Kelman, CEO of the brokerage firm Redfin, points out that every home converted into a rental means one less home on the market, contributing to low inventory and limited sales growth.

If you are interested in buying a home, be it small or large, contact me to see how I can help. I work for all types of buyers, from first-time homeowners to empty nesters. Click here to view my featured listings.

Housing Market Update

Jim Weiker writes in The Columbus Dispatch that recent trends continue: home shortages, increased home prices, reduced time on the market, and declining home sales. Why is the imbalance between buyers and sellers so persistent? Weiker reports that roughly 20% of central Ohio homeowners still owe more than the value of their home.  Others are worried that their house will sell too quickly, that they won't have anywhere to live when it does sell, and that interest rates (despite being relatively low) are not as good as the ones they are currently sitting on. Another problem is minimal new home construction. According to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist with the National Association of REALTORS, claims that new-home construction needs to increase by at least 50 percent in order to create a balanced market. Is this market the new normal, or is it just facing a slow recovery? Columbus REALTORS reports in a recent article that the number of central Ohio homes and condos sold in July 2014 increased by 11.4% from June 2014, but is still slightly down from June 2013 (by 3.3%). Promisingly, inventory is up 5.5% from May 2013.  Unfortunately, price increases usurp inventory gains: the average sales price of a home rose by 9.1% since just this May.

Overall, it's impossible to predict the housing market. It seems that gains have been made in past couple of months, but that the market is not as healthy (as of June 2014) as it was one year ago (June 2013), when central Ohio sales were 3.3 percent higher (2,952 compared to 2,856), the median price was 3.8% lower ($159,400 compared to $165,500), and the average number of days on the market was 16.7% higher (72 compared to 60). Despite a market that tends to favor sellers, 100% of central Ohio REALTORS classify the housing market as moderate to strong, and expect it to remain so over the next six months, according the latest Housing Market Confidence Index.

Post-Grad Housing Market Expected to Improve

90% of Americans 35 and younger prefer to own a home over renting one, according to a recent Fannie Mae survey. However, only 36% do own a home, down from the 2005 peak (43%) and the lowest percentage yet since home ownership by age was first recorded in 1982. Many factors come into play when examining barriers to home ownership, including the following:

• Student debt. It's no secret that the cost of higher education is rising. Moreover, more students are pursuing advance degrades (such as a masters degree or MBA), luring students even further into debt.

• Stagnant wage growth. Recently, wage growth has been offset by higher prices, hindering prosepctive homeowners. 

• Tight lending standards/inadequate credit. Not having enough credit makes it difficult for prospective homeowners to qualify for loans. Tight lending standards make it even more difficult, as lenders are more selective when approving people for home loans. Unfortunately, it takes time to build a good credit score. 

• Competition. Ironically, many of America's "youngest" cities are also the most expensive--New York City, Chicago, Las Angeles, and San Francisco among others. Competition in these cities drives up housing prices, pricing young residents out of the market. Furthermore, people in their 20s and early 30s cannot compete with the all-cash offers that are more common in competitive markets. 

• Low inventory. Low inventory has characterized the housing market for over a year now, meaning the market typically favors sellers over buyers. When in-damand houses enter the market, they tend not to stay there long; some sell within the week. This discourages first-time homebuyers, who want more time before committing to any given house. 

• Inability to generate a down payment. Many of the above points (including stagnant wage growth and student debt) result in the inability to generate a down payment. People in their 20s and 30s have yet to reach their prime earning years, and have also had less time to build up their savings. 

Fortunately, things are looking up for young homeowners. Mortgage lending is loosening up, as lenders approve people with lower credit scores and smaller down payments. As the job market continues to recover from the 2007-2008 crisis, incomes are expected to rise. However, this will likely not result in a housing "boom." Currently, many recent graduates are living with a parent (11 million in 2012, according to Pew Research Center). Instead, college graduates will slowly and steadily trickle out of their parents' homes and into the adult world.

A Strong End for 2013

The 2013 housing market finished strong, and 95% of Central Ohio REALTORS expect it to remain moderate or strong over the next six months according to the Ohio Association of REALTORS's Housing Market Confidence Index. Why? Let's look at some key statistics:

• From December 2012, December 2013 saw a 2.5% increase in the number of home sales. At 1735, This is the most sales on record since the peak of the housing boom in 2005. 

• December inventory of 8,732 was the lowest its been since 2000. More specifically, 2013 had the lowest inventory on record for Central Ohio, at just 3.9%. 

• Overall, 2013 documents the second-highest sales year on record. It experienced a 17.1% increase in the number of closed sales since 2012. 

Contact me if you're interested in buying, selling, or renting a home. I have the experience and expertise to guide you through today's housing market. 

Predictions of the 2014 Housing Market

An article published by Realtor.com discusses five trends that experts predict to see this year:

1) Stable Inventory. 2013 was noted for its historically low inventory. In previous months, inventory gradually increased, although average age of inventory is still lower (down 11% in 2013), illustrating the fact that homes are selling faster than they were in 2012.

2) Positive Equity. Increased home prices helped 25 million homeowners regain positive equity status during the second quarter of 2013. Median list price for homes in October rose 7.57 percent above that of October 2012. Home prices are expected to continue increasing in 2014, which is good news for the 7.1 million homes still in negative equity (as of the second quarter of 2013).

3) Fewer Foreclosures. Foreclosure inventory has dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that foreclosures will have a minimal impact on the 2014 housing market. In fact, September 2013 marked the 36th consecutive month with a year-over-year decrease in foreclosure activity. 

4) Increased Mortgage Rates. Even though mortgage rates have already increased 100 basis points in 2013, they are nonetheless expected to rise. Janet Yellen, the chairman-designate of the Federal Reserve, pledges to continue the policies of Ben Bernanke, including keeping mortgage rates low by buying blocks of mortgage-backed securities.

5) Less-Afforable Homes. Increased home prices have outpaced increased income, resulting in the lowest Home Affordability Index in five years (as published by the National Association of Realtors).

While some of these patterns are favorable and others are not, it is important to remember that they are only speculative. The real estate market changes every day, alongside changes in the general economy. Keep up with my blog in order to stay informed of real estate market trends!

Buyers and Sellers Remain Cautious

According to a survey by Redfin, an online real estate brokerage, only 28% of people feel now is a good time to buy a home. This is actually an increase from 24% in the third quarter. This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 2012 that homebuyer confidence has increased. Why isn't buyer confidence even higher? Buyers are frustrated with low inventory, increasing home prices, and increasing mortgage rates. Seller confidence is dwindling, as well. While 63% of survey respondents said "now is a good time to sell a home" in the third quarter, that percentage has dropped to 46%.

In November, Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey discovered that two-thirds of respondents think the economy is on the wrong track. Consumers are also concerned that they will get less money for their home than they would have during the summer.

Discouraged by today's housing market? Working with a professional, experienced real estate agent will help you achieve your goals in the least amount of time with the least amount of hassle. Contact me to see how I can help!

Market Update

Summary: The housing market is in a completely different state than it was this time last year, with steady price increases, more solid inventory, and strong demand.

Details:  Median age of inventory is 94 days. This is a leading indicator of demand and has declined by 11.32 percent from last year. In Columbus in particular, inventory is scarce, with a median age of inventory of 78 days—less than three months! Home prices, on the other hand, have risen. Nationally, the median list price increased by 7.57% year-over–year. The median list price for homes in Columbus, Ohio is $148,500. –a smaller increase of 2.77%. Overall, the market did not experience the seasonal slowdown typical of the fall months, leaving buyers, sellers, and Real Estate agents working full steam ahead.

In today’s recovering market, there is never a bad time to buy or sell your home. I assist both buyers and sellers in Central Ohio. Contact me if you are looking for a qualified and caring agent to address your specific home needs. 

Click here to see market statistics for a wide variety of other major U.S. cities. 

The Inside Scoop on Winter House Hunting

Realtor.com recently published its Winter Home Buyer Report, which reveals the pros and cons when it comes to searching for a home in the winter months. The most common complaint involves insufficient inventory in a buyer’s preferred price range. 45% of respondents cited this as problematic, while 34% noted the lack of inventory in general. Many respondents also replied that the inclement weather makes house hunting less enjoyable. On the plus side, respondents claim that sellers are more motivated to sell and negotiate, home prices are better, and competition is less severe, allotting buyers more time to make a decision. House hunting in the winter also lets the buyer test a home’s “winter fitness” (drafty windows? inadequate heating system?). Real Estate agents are likely more available, and lenders and movers will be more accessible and sometimes more affordable. You also get the chance to see how well the streets are paved and whether the homes are decorated for the holidays.

Many people (approximately 25%) are currently searching for a home because they were unable to find one during the warmer months. It is also common to see winter buyers who are relocating. Unfortunately, the same problems that discouraged buyers in the summer and fall, such as low inventory, continue to hinder buyers now.

Are you in the market to sell or buy a home? Contact me to see what I can do for you!

August Home Sales Record High

Central Ohio home sales for summer 2013 stand at their highest point on record. Chris Pedon, Columbus board of REALTORS president, states that "home sales over the summer were off the charts." He notes that only one summer (2005--the height of the housing boom) even came close to seeing the same volume of home sales. Homes sold from January-August of this year exceed those that sold during the same time in 2012 by 23%, and also surpass those of any prior year. The 2,729 home sales in August of this year marks another record high, exceeding August 2012 home sales by 11%. School systems are noticing this trend, indicated by increased student enrollment in many major school systems such as Dublin, Olentangy, Hilliard and Westerville. While inventory is slowly increasing and home sales are slightly declining from earlier summer months such as July, demand still outnumbers supply. Pedon advises homeowners who have considered moving to move now, before demand further declines. Read the full housing report here.

Looking for an agent? Contact me to see what I can do for you.

Housing Market Cooling Off

This year has seen a hot housing market, featuring low inventory, multiple bids, and same day offers. While the market is still recovering, it's starting to even out. In much of 2012 and earlier this year, home prices were increasing faster than they are now, and inventory was near record lows, which supported a competitive atmosphere and high asking prices. In July, asking prices declined by 1/3 of a percent--the first monthly drop since November. In July, home showings dropped by 3.5 percent, and signed contract offers were down 11 percent when compared with June. For a brief, current update on the housing market, watch "This Month in Real Estate," below.

Distressed Properties Down as Market Recovers

This summer, supply of conventional homes has decreased while demand has increased. But what about foreclosures? According to In Contract magazine, the number of lender-mediated properties, commonly known as distressed properties (such as short sales and foreclosures), for sale in Central Ohio dropped by nearly 50 percent in the first three months of 2013. The inventory of distressed properties fell by 42.2 percent from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, distressed property sales increased by 19.9 percent. Perhaps more interesting, the number of closed sales for lender-mediated properties succeeded the number of new listings by more than 10 percent, meaning a good number of distressed properties that have been sitting on the market for awhile have been sold. Nonetheless, the sales mix is “shifting away from distressed properties and back toward traditional homes.” Supporting this claim is the that fact that the sales price of distressed properties has increased by 1.6 percent in the past year, while the sales price of conventional homes has increased by 4.2 percent (averaging $64,000 and $163,000, respectively).

These statistics speak to the market’s recovery, as Central Ohio has witnessed a very active market in the past couple of months. In fact, according the Housing Market Confidence Index released by the Ohio Association of REALTORS, 96% of Central Ohio REALTORS classify today’s market as “moderate to strong,” and all expect it to remain so over the next few months. Home prices and appraisals are largely believed to stay the same, or increase, in the year to come. Interested in buying or selling? Contact me--I would love to help. 

4 Stats Homebuyers Should Know

To have the most positive and successful homebuying experience, homebuyers should be as educated as possible about the market they are navigating. Knowing what you're getting into in advance will keep you from feeling too frustrated or overwhelmed. Trulia discusses four points that are good to know when searching for your new home:

1) The number of homes you'll lose before you win.
It's completely normal for buyers to lose out on a few homes before they are the prevailing bidder. When you lose a bid, move forward quickly in search of your next opportunity to make an offer. 

2) Average number of offers per listing.
Ask your agent about what is standard, in terms of competition levels, in the neighborhoods, price ranges, and property types you're looking for. In today's hot market, some people experience multiple offers, same-day sales, and above asking price offers. If this is the case where you are looking--you should know about it. 

3) Neighborhood "run rate."
A run rate mathematically tells you what home prices in an area would be in the future if the continued rate of rise continued for a year. While home price increases can be seasonal (with greater increases occuring in the spring and summer months), our market is still recovering from the recession, so it's quite possible that home price increases will continue to rise throughout the year.

4) Inventory rate and direction
How many houses are listed for sale, and is this number increasing or decreasing? If you're a more selective buyer with a long wish list, it may be hard to find your new home in a lower-than-average-inventory market such as the one we're experiencing today. Knowing this, you may have to sacrifice some of your "must haves" or up your budget. It's best to be realistic about what you can and cannot get in a certain area for a specified price. This will help you make well-timed, well-informed, competitive offers.

If you're not currently working with an agent, and would like to know more about these statistics pertaining to where you'd like to live, contact me. It would be my pleasure to help make your home buying experience easier and more enjoyable. 

New Listings up 20% From May 2012

The Columbus Board of Realtors recently published that May had the highest number of new listings in one month since April 2010. May's 4,213 new listings yields a 19.6% increase from that month last year. Home sales in Central Ohio also experienced a sharp increase--up 27% from the same time last year. May saw 2756 home sales in 2013--the most home sales for the month of May on record. The median and average price of a sold home in Central Ohio also rose from that of one year ago, by 8.3% and 5.9%, respectfully. Even though inventory remains 16% lower than this time last year, which creates intense competition among buyers, the Columbus Board of Realtors President Chris Pedon states that this "obviously isn't curbing people's interest in buying homes." As market confidence continues to grow, more homes are expected to be listed for sale.

Read the full article here.

Contact me if you're considering buying or selling your home. I can help you explore and understand today's distinct market.